XVI. Recalibration

So, what’s new? Do you even ask yourself!? Do you need to?

Well fuck me!! It’s about time!!

I was bored AF over here! 😁

I know I’ve touched on this before, but I need to drive this home. We are creatures of unintentional automated habit. It’s so freaking natural we don’t realise it. We never give it thought without deliberately doing so, or until we’re in such a predicament that we have no other choice but to!

Freedom of expression.

Maverick. What does that mean really? It’s (somehow) associated with recklessness, which immediately conditions you to be more conformist, because conformity is good, comfortable, it doesn’t rock the boat, is easily controlled and we can all exist happily in the herd, keeping everyone else safe in the known & accepted.

Aren’t you dying from suffocation by boredom yet?! 😁

Why is it, that in the main, although we know it’s those who step out that step up, we still allow ourselves to let that knowledge lie dormant, as opposed to acting on it. What if we substitute the term “Maverick” with the word progressive. Would this make it easier to contemplate and adopt?

Either way it’s the same thing, just get on with it!!

Each new season is presented with new parameters, so although empirical knowledge has undoubted value, to move forward married to the old without also appreciating the crucial need to explore, define, apply and continously develop new methodical theories and strategies, will only keep you comfortably in and around the herd. Oh joy!! 😏

Abandon fear all ye who enter here!

Castoreum- Canadian Beaver Castor Tincture - Apothecary's Garden

It’s time to step away from being so “Beaver Castoreum” (i.e vanilla – I suggest you Google it! 😂). The 1st step is to simply let go of fear, I mean, in this case, what’s the worse that can happen? What? Your mate is gonna rib you for a week? You’ll loose a few 100k in rank, maybe more? Is that really so detrimental to the big picture? Grow some, both the proverbial testes as well as putting yourself to the test which in itself promotes growth. If you can’t do this with an essentially inconsequential game, then where can you?!! Continous development of your approach (to literally anything) demands this. With fear gone, you actually realise that growth is fun!

The 2nd step (also something I’ve touched on before) is noticing the habits you don’t know you have! How do you recognise something that you don’t notice? This could be a whole blog entry on it’s own, but as I said before, we’re habitual creatures, so trust me, you have them! What makes them more noticeable however, is daring to step out of your echo-chamber, doing so will inevitably subject you to triggers. You may already have triggers, anger at your GW results, perma-captain-blanks, frustration, feelings of negativity or just plain boredom! How you react to these triggers is crucial to the development of your problem management. Yes, it can be scary, but nothing ventured, nothing gained. Life has no time for shrinking-violets, she’ll chew them up and spit them out! You will initially have setbacks, and may even perform worse than when you were in the safety of herd-mentality but this is the essence of un-learning and learning anew.

See yourself as an architect of a grand design. Whilst you’re at ground-level amongst the detail it’s almost impossible to see the whole picture of your project. What you need to do is step back and take a birds-eye view. Levitate yourself above the detail and take in the full view of what you’re trying to build. Up where the air is clear you’ll unclutter your mind, process the information around you from both old & new sources, incorporating your own ideas as well, it is your project after all! Do not fall into the habit of dismissing any information you hear, at least process it even if it is ultimately discarded. Once you’ve identified the defects (from your lofty perch), descend back into the detail and apply the newly honed knowledge. Keep repeating this cycle, even when things start going well, as the ultimate goal is to make this new school of thinking, habitual.

You never know what nuggets of brilliance you’ll form from information you never considered!

Leave your echo-chamber where only being reactive exists. Challenging yourself promotes proactivity. This will give you the confidence to trust your thoughts. Know that there are many, many ways to play the game, no one way is best, all strategies have optimum and inferior moments. Question everything, even after you’ve deliberated it and are sure of your current plan!

How else will you create that yearly OR history we all strive for?!

Fuck Yeah! Now we’re talking!😈

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INTERMISSION

Achievement unlocked – you have survived to game week 8 and are still in touch with the pack.

I’m glad I purchased that heavy duty armour of patience, safety picks and logical planning when I went up against Captain Chaos (aka the 2020/2021 Football Season).

Now the great unknown is being unmasked by data and metrics, we are all starting to identify value players and up trending teams, level 2 awaits, further adventure, more rewards.

Time to re-equip and upgrade to a more flexible liquid body armour to go with my force field of confidence.

I had a stellar GW8, 78 points (average 55) my first 6 figure game week rank (330k). I moved up 500k in OR to 711,280, 473 total points.

Game Week 8 Team Selection

Knee jerk take aways – Son & Robbo need to go. Considered reaction, Son & Robbo look the weakest links going forward. Son because his fixtures change for the worse, Bale’s introduction and possibly an unknown factor, well he’s not performing in his natural explosive way. Robbo is not value for money and Pool’s strength is no longer in their defence. This week’s big decision, keep Kane or not ..?

So let’s get down to it, the crux of the matter is, how to move forward. My next target is to achieve a top 100k rank by the next natural break GW16, the last game of the calendar year. I am in a good place to be more attacking but I want to couple this with maintaining a low to medium risk.

CONSIDERATIONS

  • the future – the next 15-20 fixtures should be more normal by this I mean regressing to the norm stats wise, we still have Covid and the ensuing complications. The schedule will remain hectic.
  • fixture swings
  • the new NEW top 6
  • the Manchester players – worth their value or not
  • maintain team value – it’s worth it at the end of the season
  • template/ownership – time to monitor & react to
  • HITS – time to ease off now, but allow them one last time out of the break, to reposition the squad for the next push
  • differentials – players/teams/managers/formations

Zelda Explained – Dr Emmett Brown

Time to get the old grey matter processing over the International Break. Join me next week for total world domination.

XV. Jigsaw

This season to date, for me and many others, has been a horror show.

Much like a jigsaw, we’re all continually trying to find the right pieces to paint the picture we like. Sifting through the ever changing shapes and sizes is an intriguiging challenge, requiring a dynamism as equally engaging as it can be frustrating.

My frustration, manifested itself as a number of hits, to piece together the corners of the picture. These cornerstone assets which represent value and a medium to long-term shelf-life are invaluable in achieving and maintaining a clear perspective of The Game. The alternative is a constant state of flux which inevitably leads to bad decision making, infinitum, if you don’t check yourself! To this effect, you may baulk at the thought of double-digit costing hits, but, the long term benefit outweighs the immediate shortfall… as long as the correct pieces are selected that is!

With this in mind, I took a deep dive into how I’ve played the game up to and including GW7 this season…

(https://www.game-change.co.uk/2017/08/28/fantasy-football-what-if-machine/)

281pts (£98.7M)

If I made no transfers to the GW1 team, selecting my best captain every week.

28pts (7 hits 💉)

Taken to date, having also played my WC! Which in hind-sight was not played as well as it could’ve been.

320pts (£103.5M)

Current points incl. 3 ©️ returns, the highest of which being 16pts in GW7.

Net Gain: 39pts

The deduction I take from this is basically how important hitting the captaincy each week is… and how disastrous my GW1 squad was!!

The problem with being on the back foot from the get-go is the need to be tooled up every gameweek (the hits I took)! You have to keep pace with the pack ahead – or at least try – by ensuring you have the highly owned shield 🛡 picks (e.g: Heung-Min Son, 60% owned!!). Alongside these shields, you need to also attack the game with sword 🗡 picks. Having consolidated my defensive positioning against the pack with multiple shields, this week (GW8) I transferred in Ziyech (only 7% owned) & capped him!🗡🗡

If you’re good at anticipating the game, it leaves nothing to chance.

This is the game we play. Anticipation of which assets will be of most purpose to our tally of points. When to acquire them, use them, and then dump them, unceremoniously. You see, this jigsaw is a complex landscape, the pieces morphing from picturesque harmony to bloody disjointedness right before our eyes. Our teams will soar or drown by the decisions we make. Our elation or sorrow is that of our own making, we control the ultimate outcome.

The stage of the game is approaching which could ultimately outline what the completed puzzle will display. The festive season may seem just far away enough right now, but, it’s the passing combinations of pieces collected and discarded during this period which will heavily determine the final depiction of The Game.

Make your choices.

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PIVOTAL

The most important thing when you’re handling a risky operation, is you’ve got to be very cool under pressure, you’ve got to be focused. You can’t have too much empathy. If things do go wrong, the most important facet in a manager’s arsenal is decisiveness. You cannot freeze.

The pro’s to turning up the dial on certain psychopathic traits – lack of empathy, versatility, self worth and focus – is that your decision making confidence is boosted, so that adverse conditions will be redirected into opportunities, and quickly too.

Every game week offers a new risk, be it a fixture turn, bandwagon, injury or enigma. Stepping back from the noise, to look at the bigger picture and doing your own thing can inspire quiet revolutions.

On my mind this coming game week

Team Formation

In FPL, team formation, whilst not such a glamorous topic such as transfers or chip usage, is none the less vital for points generation. Mainly due to a glut of goals so far this season, my chosen strategy, bar GW1, has been to set up a 343.

Defence has been a minimum spend area for me. But I am watching the situation, because things change, and identifying the starting points to shifts leads to getting ahead of the curve, and differential points. Are the goals starting to slow down ? Last week I touched on the fact, less goals mean less points hauls, which means hit taking becomes riskier. Now I am considering a shift of funds into defence, but only if this downward trend continues.

20/21 Season Goals per Game Week

The Seminal Game

Looking ahead to GW8, the game of the round sees Man City host Liverpool, where one manager’s injury crisis has meant a reduced defence, and the other’s injury crisis has meant a reduced attack, both are benefiting from repositioning midfielders.

Klopp’s decision to spend £32M plus Ki-Jana Hoever to get Jota in, now looks good business, it gives Liverpool a new shape, and a new attacking dimension – and hopefully a new raised ceiling for goals scored. We have all dined out on their solid defence these past years, well 2020 is different, stay at home and take a long look at the attacking options instead – and how the points might be spread around more.

This is surely a must win game for City ? A spring board or a diving board ? Pep knows. He rested Laporte and Dias last night (in Europe) and gave Jesus a little run out (after 6 weeks injury). Since conceding 5 goals against Leics they have conceded only 3 in 8 games. City have only scored 9 goals in the league so far this season, extrapolated that becomes 57 for the season, in 19/20 they scored 102…upturn imminent ?

Value + Objectification = Easier transfer decisions..in theory ?

We are on the verge of being a quarter of the way through the season, statistics do actually mean something. We are also on the verge of major fixture swings. Now lets add a refreshingly large player pool of options…how to choose going forward?

There are some really tough decisions on the horizon, uppermost, shall we hold our Spurs assets ?

VAPM (Value Added per Million) allows you to compare players of varying prices and positions when it comes to your decision-making process. Objectification means treating your players like objects meaning you form no attachment to them and can transfer them out with no anxiety – inflating your godlike status of self worth along the way.

https://myfplanalysis.co.in/stats

The Hunt for Differentials

There is no magic answer, except to look everywhere. There are many ‘experts’ on social media who can help you. I like to look for myself too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables

Rarely referred to in the FPL community, I often find myself in a Zen moment when I take my somewhat irregular look at the league table. I consider the team form as well as the individual when I make my choices.

Goals scored, non penalty – Spurs 16, Liverpool 14, Everton 14, Chelsea 13… might be useful to see the penalties table here

Penalty Goals Scored Table

Another take away from looking at the table is Arsenal – fewest goals conceded, already played some big guns…sitting mid table, transitional…might be worth a deeper dive investigation

The longer you look the more you see, this is no trick, it’s just a means to trigger reflection and keep you away from the knee jerk society.

Captaincy

Am I really that bad at picking a captain ? I need to put aside some time during the break to focus on this area of weakness.

GW7 average points 53 my score 57, small green arrow, up 100k to 1.2m. Captained Kane over Salah. Got in Rashford for an injured Rodriguez. I rolled a transfer last week and will do so again this.

Team Value is 102.7.

I’m doing alright, heading into the big push towards the halfway stage, it’s a solid foundation.

XIV. Samhain

Halloween History: Samhain

Muhahaahahaaa… so about rolling my GW7 FT. 😄 The FPL Gods have handed the reigns to their version of Atë and she is an evil trickster of epic proportions! I love her! 😈

Digne got a red card for an innocuous challenge so I had to bring his planned transfer forward a week. I was methodical as opposed to reactive for a change, which resulted in bringing in a player who although featured in the stats perused when scouting players, had not yet made my watchlist, Ben Chilwell. I was more focused on a WHU or AVL DF due to their defensive stats plus upcoming fixtures, Cresswell being the most likely candidate. It’ll be interesting to track and compare the returns of these two defenders over the coming GWs.

When you release ego and stop trying to dictate to the darkness, a sense of clarity can be found. With this clearer perspective there’s a chance you can attune your thoughts to the harmony of chaos.

With dimensions about to collide, Atë is mischievously chaotic in the extreme, but, she still has a plan, however evilly abstract it may be. Her Dastardly Digne Red a ploy to drag me back into the Void. However, this Hallow’s Eve coincides with a Hunter’s Moon and I’m a selenophile, my clarity maxed like some wronged blood-bender!!

Rodriguez drips yellow like an old spectre of impending doom floating above the green acid sea. Ghouls still taunt me for willingly succumbing to Ate’s initial trick. A spell cast on the Sirens who enchanted me into Jorginho’s Hell, away from the golden shores of Bamford, where 17 tables of banquet were laid to usher in this dark half of the season. Yet, this fleetingly subtle melding of dimensions beneath the reflected light holds no fear.

Chaos in and of itself, still has to operate within the confines of chaos, so naturally, a pattern emerges.

The thing with this season is, nothing is what it seems. What we know as reliable structure no longer exists. The rules of engagement are void. For instance…

How?!

I have no idea of the mind behind this team, but even if it was a -44 to change every starter, 51pts in GW6 would still be a haul!😄 Obviously -44s are folly, however this team serves to simply display that as chaotic as the selection is, you can still find harmony, however fleeting (this is chaos after all!), in the moment.

-4s seem to be my goto though, even when I attempt to avoid! It must’ve been a premonition, or maybe with the thinning of the veil between worlds, I pre-empted Atë’s next trick. I took a hit 💉 (before the presser) for Rodriguez 🔄 Foden blunting her “surprise”. This must’ve vexed her! She sent her minions out, resulting in a Saiss no-show for a Wolves CS, a benched Jorginho (1st sub) AND Foden!! The latter made a 9 min cameo! I had to laugh, even through being 3pts in the red!!

I’ve countered her evil chaos with my own though…

Saiss 🔄 Kilman

Jorghino 🔄 Ziyech 💉

Paid £7.9 for Ziyech, turning her anger to my advantage as he’s now £8.0 & I would’ve been £0.1M out had I dallied! 😈 The final battle of wills between us will manifest on what Justin returns as my Saiss auto-sub.

Trick? Or Treat!!

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