Another default average score, 48 points, the actual average was err 48 points.

40k red arrow.

OR 2,439,087.

Last game week I was planning to roll a transfer, but I ‘had a feeling’ which resulted in my transferring in and captaining – Vardy. For a stunning 4 point haul.

Well here we are at the International Break, and I am still trying to find joy in playing FPL this season.

Last Monday night I thought I had found the answer.

In a devilish scheming manipulative twist of play, I was going to stick two fingers up to points and ranking, and chase price rises by activating my wild card.

So here is an exciting look at my team, wild card activated, featuring 10 new players selected for their price rise potential.

Tottering Hotpunts

Building team value is a positive strategy that hopefully gives me an edge later. Historically the market is more volatile early in the season, in the last 4 years, game weeks 3-6 have on average 100+ moves. Thereafter movement drops off somewhat, stabilising to 30-40 moves after game week 13. Prices fall as well as rise, with a 4-1 ratio at this early stage.

The Method

I kept the players I had value in (Salah, Kevin & Bamford) wary that if I removed them and then changed my mind, I may be priced out and unable to get them back.

Other players who have not risen in price whilst in my squad, I can safely remove, as long as they are not likely to rise in the short term – so yes checking price rise prediction sites is crucial. The same goes for likely fallers, unless they are part of my long term planning, for example De Bruyne took a drop, but for me he is a season keeper and still holds profit for me.

Their replacements are selected solely on the likelihood they get a price hike, then at the end of the International Break, I choose to replace or keep them, depending on my strategy going forward.

The Madness

DAY 1 Tuesday

I awoke early, with the excitement of a child on Christmas morning.

How many of my punts paid off ?

ZERO. No price rises.

DAY 2 Wednesday

DAY 3 Thursday

Oh …

DAY 4 Friday

DAY 5 Saturday

No rises. Bored. Frustrated.

Graph to show first 5 days of Price Rise Exploitation Wild Card Activation

With an average of less than 1 price rise per day on this exercise, I can’t help but feel a grade F for failure is in order, but there are 6 more days to go, and I have still to install my sparkly new team going forward. Plenty of decisions to make and statistics to mistrust. It’s started me thinking about over performing/regression, under performing and reverting to the norm…

Here is the link to a comprehensive article by Luke Wilson on building team value