There has been much laughter and chat in Hangouts of late, but one thing has stuck in my brain. It was something that came to me prior to Jason mentioning it and although I’d thought the same thing earlier, it wasn’t until I heard the thought spoken back to me, that it really registered.

“…at the end of the day, it’s just a guessing game!”

This prompted me to take a brief look at how we manage probability. Firstly, let’s draw a line under the fact that simply guessing randomly is not the best way to achieve a favourable result. This is further compounded by the number of variables in the game. Would you ever just play an “Autopick” team?! đŸ™‚ Inevitably, the guesses we make are not completely blind. Consciously or not, our probability management is mostly weighted by known knowns. Thus, our ability to guess right, more often than we guess wrong, is not just reliant on our knowledge of the subject at hand, but moreover, how we process and apply said knowledge. This is my current focus, how I interpret the data I consume! 🤔🤓

Noise is inevitable, the difference is what you listen to.

This GW21, due to recent injuries, form, or lack thereof – and Pep! 😆 (#chaos) – was always going to put the cat amongst the pigeons of captaincy options. The ensuing carnage of Saturday’s fixtures was, at least for me, comforting. 🤗 Captain pick after captain pick, blanked. The 12:30pm kick-off hoodoo stood true. #UNLUCKEEYY!!! 😁 Alongside DCL & Digne (WC20 purchases), and with Kane out injured, I decided to punt (guess) my FT on Richarlison. The weight of the fixture (their opponents being a poor Newcastle) combined with the return of nigh all the first team regulars who produced Everton’s blistering early season form, won out ahead of any other striker/fixture combination. It failed miserably! 😈😆 So, what is it that I voyuered, which determined my choice to go balls deep on Everton assets without care? Bravery, or Stupidity?! 🤣 This is something I’ll ruminate on until I find a satisfactory explanation! 😂 All I’ll take from it for now, is that I still believe it was a “Scientific Wild-Ass Guess” aka SWAG, mind you, I’m not an expert, maybe that’s the problem! 🤣

Scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) is an American English slang term meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field, based on experience and intuition.

Information. I’m on a quest. There’s a lot of it, but so much of it doesn’t resonate. Is it me?!

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Matchday 2 (GW20) went well considering. 61pts from my WC team (42pt GW avg) despite blanking along with the other 2.7M (a new GW record!) Bruno cappers! 🤣 A 2nd consecutive win in the group stage. 6pts on the board as my opponent Brendan Saunders took a -8 for 43pts. Funnily enough, my Matchday 3 opponent JNO (FPL Today) also took a -8 for a net 43pts. This leaves me currently, top of the table! 💪🏿

😈 On Matchday 4, I’m up against Jim Parry. 😈

The carnage which was GW21 was highly entertaining! Maybe that’s easy for me to say with the small green arrow21k – I achieved, but, it really was exhilarating! The importance of a full playing bench was immense! My DF auto-subs from 2nd & 3rd bench, afforded me a combined 10pts (taking me above the 42pt GW average) preventing a certain red arrow! Captain Harvey Barnes returned 16pts! He was my highest outfield points returner as well!! That was such fun!! 😃 I met Chaos with my own brand of Chaos 😈, and endured! That said, the cap choice was based on stats. 🤓

Looking ahead to GW22, I really need my over-investment in Everton to come good! Richarlison will complete his two gameweek punt before being unceremoniously dumped, should he return or not. The plan to hold Digne & DCL is still a go. TraorĂ© is the weak link in my squad, so he’s out already, for an asset who has impressed me in the last two gameweeks! He’s a fifth mid, so at his price, I’m happy to take a gamble… and also start him! (Sorry Jim, further information is classified on a need to know basis only! 😈😝😂) To think, my first instinct was to watch & roll this gameweek, but again, my impulses get the better of me!

I can definitely see that I’m thinking differently. Probable Evolution?! I like to think so, this is not a squad I would’ve assembled 10 gameweeks ago & I feel freer than ever from group-think. For the first time ever in my FPL career, I have no fear of playing my own game and although there will be inevitable stumbles, I’m eager to see where it takes me! 😃 I mean triple Everton & double Leicester midfield attackers?!! It’s utter madness, right?!

Doesn’t matter, if there’s method. 😉

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