The hunt is on. A predator knows that within the herd, there are weaker prey. In order to catch, devour and leave the remnants for the scavengers, the predator must first discover the weak points in the herd that lead to said prey and then utilise skill, stealth and every discernable advantage to maximise the chances of a kill. The predator must also know when to simply view all the delicious prey and yet walk on by as today is not the day to take a risk because the odds are unfavourable.
Although all managers in the game follow trends, knowing when to alight then subsequently disembark, is individually specific to the squad you manage. The unique combination of your 15 man squad, aligned with your style of management are the key ingredients which dictate whether you hunt (attack the gameweek), find a good vantage point to maybe plan a hunt (review both short/long term plans), simply chill on a branch and wait (roll the transfer), or relocate your position entirely (take hits 💉, play chips)! Points are prey! 😈
Belief Bias: the tendency to judge the strength of arguments based on the plausibility of their conclusion rather than how strongly they support that conclusion.
Bandwagon Effect: the tendency of an individual to acquire a particular style, behaviour or attitude because everyone else is doing it. It is a phenomenon whereby the rate of uptake of beliefs, ideas, fads and trends increases with respect to the proportion of others who have already done so.
Exploitation. There are many tools to be used to gain an advantage, and as in any game, the more tools you simultaneously employ, aka “strategic layers“, the greater your probability of plump, juicy point hauls become. The phenomena of group think inexorably combined with belief bias, leading to bandwagon effect, can allow you to exploit trends when they develop by either avoiding or joining them! Let’s take DGW25 as an example, firstly understanding, that any outcome is likely (😁 one for the Hangouts/Gulag Discord regulars there 😆). If any outcome is likely, you’ll either fly or crash and burn if you, for instance, had triple SOU and/or LEE assets for their DGW. However, we know that the lure of DGWs will induce the aforementioned phenomena. So, the terrain for potentially favourable hunting is within your horizon. As a second point of understanding, acceptance of unconTROLLable variables must be made peace with, this will abate emotional attachment.
My style of management lead me to not overly indulge in DGW25, with a view to looking ahead, as more than one Leeds asset was not appealing to me in the immediate future. Therefore continuing with the plan of mainly concentrating on the weak links in my team was affirmative. While Raphinha was an obvious purchase, returning 12pts over his 2 matches, where sticking with the premium cap rule would’ve seen Bruno return the same points in a single match 👀, the further additions of what I was convinced were targeted hits 💉💉 Digne 🔄 Dunk (cheaper asset with better form, playing in BGW29) & Antonio 🔄 Kane (about to enter a good fixture run, who alongside Bruno & Salah creates a 4.5% overall differential*)… Both of these assets blanked. 🤡🤣😈🤣
Dunk blanks after 7 consecutive returns, vs Crystal Palace who’ve been in dire form! Kane, despite having 6 shots in his match, only managed to trouble Flappianski, once! I relocated to a place of briars & brambles, which wouldn’t have mattered, IF, I had followed my instinctual #busteam selection! Lesson learnt.
XX!X. Probable Evolution. “…the guesses we make are not completely blind. Consciously or not, our probability management is mostly weighted by known knowns.” The trick is not second guessing yourself and sticking with your first instinct.
Those that tripled up on Leeds assets had a stormer!!! Raphina 12pts, Bamford 8pts, Dallas 17pts!! Well played! 👏🏿 Southampton asset owners, particularly Ings owners… #InTheMud!! 😈🤣 The uncontrollable variable being Ings who started his 2nd match of the double-gameweek, ON THE BENCH! 🤣🤣 But, when you think about it, hasn’t Ings’s fitness always been an issue? Is his minutes being managed all that surprising?!
I really wanted to capitalise on the previous gameweek’s points haul. Losing the next match after a good win, kinda negates that good win. It was a frustration. One which I and the team do not want to sit through the aftermath of again! The average of the last 2 gameweeks is over 80pts, this does not reconcile a 1st red arrow in 8, especially when it could’ve been avoided. The lads did what they always do, I simply employed the wrong tactics. The team is good!
The return match for Brendan Saunders V Dread FPL was the sweet taste of revenge. My lads, probably a bit cocky 😜 sitting top of the table, were handed an 80pts – 52pts thrashing!! 💪🏿 WE GO AGAIN!! 💪🏿 Out of sheer fortune, I still have a 3 point buffer. This group is far from decided!
It will go down in the annuls of history! The time when the PL trolled the FPL Community! Friday 19th February 2021 @ 18:31hrs – 1 minute after the DGW25 deadline!! EPIC!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The final BIG DGW is here. As has become a trait of mine, there will be no hits going into it. I prefer to position in advance, in order to fully maximise the points return. In my head, I play the players, as it seems the general consensus is to take the hits in the same GW. Does it really make any difference? 🤔 What I love about this DGW26… the captain choice isn’t obvious…
Or is it?! 🤔😁
*courtesy of Fantasy Football Fix